Machine Learning (ML)
The fundamental principle of AI is to enable autonomous thinking and decision making based on prior knowledge. This can be termed as building intelligence, enable autonomous learning and decision making. The initial data for computation in ML algorithms is training data. The ML algorithms use training data to predict/forecast trends, prevent or warn potential fraud, and other intelligent decision making business activities. In machines such as robots, ML algorithms are used to stop an action, avoid collision and take autonomous actions that prevent or minimize missteps.
 
Forecasting
Forecasting is used in many areas such as weather, short and long term financial performance, stock performance etc. In forecasting, statistical models are used forecast future outcomes. Based on the forecasted output humans make meaningful decisions. There is no autonomous learning involved.
 
In machine learning, the forecasted values are used as the basis or training data and for every new event. New values are predicted in a autonomous manner based on the newly learnt values. This continously goes on, and analysis can be made using multiple models.
 
Expert Systems
In the 1980s, thinking machines were conceptually known as expert systems. Expert systems were embedded with enromous knowledge in specific areas - medical diagnosis, research knowledge base etc. Based on rule based algorithms, decision tree algorithms, and other computational algorithms, the expert systems would provide answers to user prompts. As explained in earlier chapter (Role of Hardware and Software), the hardware and computing power had significant impact on the success and real-time usage of expert systems.
 
With massive improvements in hardware, memory, computing power and software, the AI based systems such as ChatGPT, have come to prominence. The analysis of a user prompt, getting very accurate answers and data retrival speed has enormously improved in the recent years. The success of ChatGPT can be attributed to advances in LLM.
 
Here is an example of an accurate answer to a math equation a x2 + b x + c = 0.
 
Answer to math equation a x^2 + b x + c = 0
 
Machine Learning in Hardware
In industrial robots, the learning was achieved by allowing the robot interface (computer system) to record the motions of the robot by simulation software. The robot is then tested on test manufacturing processes. Any new location (in 3D co-ordinates), grasping of objects, avoidance of obstacles is updated in the system. This is basically training data, to be used to perform operations in live mode, when activated in an assembly line. There will also be inter-communication data between robots to adjust speed and times to keep constant flow of operations.
 
The industrial robots need vision features to achieve intelligence. Machine Vision played a major role in robots working autonomously and make intelligent decisions. Due to machine vision, obstrucle avoidance, object grasping with high precision, autonomus mobility to name a few, were easily accomplished.
 
In case of robots and autonomous vehicles, to avoid obstacles, real-time machine vision and intelligent decision making needs to happen. Spontaneous analysis of an object (pattern/image recognition), its dimensions, distance from current location, all in 3D needs to be computed to make a accurate decision on how to maneuver around the object (obstacle) or come to a stop. Along with software, IR-sensors, radar, and hardware is required for image recognition and intelligent decion making to happen in real time.
 
Operating in autonomous mode also requires computing the shortest path and distance between starting location and the destination (end point). One of the well know algorithms used for this is TSP. This is a great solution in ideal an situation. However, the next data to collect is the traffic condition in chosen paths by this algorithm. Now a new path has to be computed if there are bottleneck or traffic jam in the initial path. To solve this issue, the TSP algorithm has to be applied recursively to get a new path to circumvent the traffic jam. Most GPS devices had this algorithm built in and we are used to the well known message "recalculating" by these systems.
 
There are other algorithms used to solve the problem of shortest path generation between two points. For efficient operation of this, both existing data (training data) and machine learning algorithms are in use - in realtime. Refer [6] for detail mathematical analysis of TSP and other algoritms.
 
Machine Learning in Software
In the beginning, the data analysis was performed by data mining, to understand trends, forecasting, improve operational efficiency, scientific research and many other areas. Statistical models were used to analyze data by the use of statistical software and related algorithms (eg. MCMC). The venn diagram shown below gives an overview of the software and technology framework, that is a part of machine learning.
 
  Data Mining, Machine Learning - Venn Diagram, [05]
Machine Learning Venn Diagram [Refer 5]
 
Machine Learning In Banks and Financial Institutes
Financial institutions/banks use machine learning to prevent fraud. The machine learning models analyze card holder's buying pattern constantly. When there is a extremely large amount of card purchase transaction, it flags the transaction to stop the transaction. At a high level following are the ML steps.

1   Create a ML Model to analyze card holder's buying pattern including the stores, resturants, on-line purchases, locations etc.
2   Set base thresholds and let ML Model analyze the pattern continuously and learn new patterns as time goes by.
3   Analyze each transaction based on existing ML-Model pattern for the customer and learn/update pattern.
4   Flag the transaction as questionable or fraudulent if it fails the customer purchasing pattern (amount, location, method of purchase etc.).

Scenario - One
Further, what if the same card was used to purchase a flight ticket, say from Philadelphia to San Francisco, the card transaction system should now know (by machine learning models) that after specific date/time there could be credit card charges in the destination city - San Francisco and around. Still ML-Models have to analyze the transactions. Now the complexities are, was the ticket one-way or two-way. This also creates new ways to analyze transaction with date/timestamps and locations.
 
Scenario - Two
Another scenario is, the ticket could be bought by some other card/mobile transaction. In many cases there may not be joint data exchange/communication due to PCI DSS, PCI SSC standards that govern waht can be shared and what cannot, between different credit card systems/financial institutions, modes of payment (mobile), cash etc. due to customer privacy and security. This can result in transaction being incorrectly flagged as fraud or questionable. Some card companies call the customer to provide verification to validate the transaction at the POS. All these actions will be based ML models that analyze customer-purchasing pattern.


Two Key Machine Learning Methods
1. Supervised learning - a planned approach with standard input with several predicted output (in robots, all possible motions or 3D co-ordinates are recorded and it can operate autonomously using the learnt models and alogrithms). Mathematically the best approach to supervised machine learning is SVM.
 
2. Unsupervised learning - learning constantly in an autonomous manner with all types inputs (known and unknown) and system is allowed to predict output based on trends, statistical models and algorithms. The system has be configured to all possible statistical models and algorithms. Two well known methods used in unsupervised learning are PCA and clustering.
 
2.1. Semi-supervised learning - a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised learning. A system is configured to all possible statistical models and learning algorithms. The system is monitored and supervised learning is applied when responses are not as expected. This type of learning is best for situations that are too complex or inputs are unknown, resulting in unpredictable outcomes.



ML Methods and Algorithms
 
ML Implementation
 
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Revised Date: April 16th, 2023